Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

ESTIMATING CENTRAL TENDENCY FROM UNCENSORED TRACE LEVEL MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of data which have trace level measurements has traditionally been a two-step process in which data are first censored using criteria based on measurement precision, and then analyzed with statistical methods for censored data. The process might be more informative if data were left uncensored. In this paper, information loss attributable to censoring and measurement noise are assessed by comparing the sample mean and median of uncensored measurements with a log regression mean and median based on censored data. Measurements are derived from lognormal parent distributions which have random variability characteristic of trace level measurement. The relative performance of estimators used with error-free samples and with samples having measurement noise can be explained by differences between the probability distributions of parents and measurements. Measurement introduces bias and dispersion and transforms lognormal parent distributions toward greater symmetry. Estimates using uncensored data are less biased and more accurate than the log regression mean and median when censoring exceeds about 50 percent, and are not much worse at any fraction censored. For data with many (80 percent) results below the limit of detection, bias may be quite severe.     

某化工企业1971～2000年职工恶性肿瘤死亡情况的动态分析

对以天然气、食盐为原料生产基础化工产品的综合性化工企业的职工调查显示,恶性肿瘤已成为该企业职工死亡的主要原因之一,总死亡率为1.44‰,与当地对照有显著性,尤以肺癌、肝癌、食道癌为主.动态观察显示,职工恶性肿瘤死亡率从1971～的0.41‰上升为1996～的1.93‰,总体呈现逐年上升的趋势.1991～以来的男、女职工死亡性比率为1.90∶1,两者差异非常显著,目前3位死因都有统计学意义.这说明恶性肿瘤对该企业职工,特别是男性职工的生命健康威胁越来越大,应成为今后卫生工作的重点之一.     

Labor market estimates of the senior discount for the value of statistical life

This article develops the first measures of age–industry job risks to examine the age variations in the value of statistical life. Because of the greater risk vulnerability of older workers, they face flatter wage-risk gradients than younger workers, which we show to be the case empirically. Accounting for this heterogeneity in hedonic market equilibria leads to estimates of the value of statistical life–age relationship that follows an inverted U shape. The estimates of the value of statistical life range from $6.4 million for younger workers to a peak of $9.0 million for those aged 35–44, and then a decline to $3.8 million for those aged 55–62. The decline of the estimated value of statistical life with age is consistent with there being some senior discount in the Clear Skies Initiative analysis.     

What shall we teach in environmental statistics?

The need for statistical methodology in environmental and ecological applications has grown dramatically over the past few decades, to where targeted and/or specialized courses in environmental statistics are necessary at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. We discuss here the construction of such courses, and pose questions on the course development process for the statistical and environmental community. Our exposition is based upon our own experience with the design of a graduate environmental statistics course.     

苯甲（乙）腈类化合物理化参数的统计和筛选

本文对20个芳香腈化合物的理化参数作了统计分析,得到了乙腈基中—CH_2—基因的电子效应常数为0.2,建立了水解速率常数k与取代基电子效应常数σ的回归方程,pk=5.89,9—2.144σ(R=-0.957,n=20),根据各化合物的因子得分和实验设计方法为生物试验挑选出了5个有代表性的化合物。     

Measuring sustainability

An agricultural system is sustainable if productive output is maintained economically over time when assessed in relation to environmental concern. This paper considers ways of statistically evaluating measures of sustainability illustrated by reference to extensive data from the Classical Experiments at Rothamsted.     

石家庄市大气主要污染物的统计预报

介绍了石家庄市在大气主要污染物预报统计模式方面的研究，包括统计回归分析的原理，预报选取的因子，主要污染物的回归方程及其相关系数和推广应用情况，通过分析指出了模式存在的不足，并给出了改进方向。     

基于DPSIR框架理论的环境管理能力分析

鉴于完善的环境管理政策和法律法规对于保护和改善当前的环境状况的重要性，在DPSIR理论框架的基础上，分析了环境管理社会能力的概念，建立了环境管理社会能力的评价指标体系。并通过调查问卷获取数据，对数据进行整理，利用相关软件进行统计分析，得出北京市当前环境管理现状和未来发展方向。其中应用了DPSIR框架理论反映环境管理中各基本要素间的因果关系，采用了类似“服务质量”的概念体现能力估算时环境管理的质量。     

2017年7-8月国内生产安全事故统计分析

统计了2017年7-8月国内发生的各种生产安全事故117起,其中包括交通事故、矿业事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄漏与中毒和其他事故.统计表明,在117起事故中,交通事故占61.54％,矿业事故占4.27％,爆炸事故占5.13％,火灾占4.27％,毒物泄漏与中毒占8.55％,其他事故占16.24％.117起事故共死亡502人.死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故65.94％,矿业事故4.78％,爆炸事故3.39％,火灾3.39％,毒物泄漏与中毒5.98％,其他事故16.53％.2017年7-8月生产安全事故发生较多的5个省和自治区分别为广东(10起)、内蒙古(8起)、云南(7起)、四川(7起)和山西(6起);死亡人数较多的5个省和自治区分别为广东(57人)、陕西(43人)、内蒙古(31人)、四川(29人)和云南(27人).